Six months into the Iran war, financial markets have largely moved on, even as the conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes drags into an open-ended standoff. Front-month Brent crude oil futures have gained almost 20% since the Iran war six months of fighting began, but those contracts are now trading around a third below their April peak of $126.41 a barrel, and global equity markets have broadly rallied as corporate earnings optimism has outweighed fears about the war’s wider economic consequences.
What the White House once expected to last four to six weeks has settled into something far more stubborn. The Trump administration has pivoted away from large-scale military operations and towards a sustained campaign of financial pressure, a strategy President Donald Trump has labelled ‘economic D-Day.’
From ceasefire to blockade: how the conflict shifted
The early months of the war saw rapid escalations and failed attempts at de-escalation. On 7 April 2026, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire contingent on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, according to Steptoe. The agreement collapsed, and on 13 April 2026, the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iran following the breakdown of the Islamabad Talks, according to Wikipedia. Ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz have continued to come under attack since.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also announced that Trump had warned any country supplying weapons to Iran would face an immediate 50% tariff on all goods sold to the United States, adding another layer of economic threat alongside the military campaign. Then, on 24 August 2026, Trump and the Department of the Treasury announced ‘Operation Economic Outcast,’ a programme aimed at removing the Islamic Republic of Iran ‘and its enablers’ from all available financial resources supporting the Iranian regime, according to Thompson Hine LLP.
Questions remain over whether the administration is prepared to extend secondary sanctions to China, one of Iran’s biggest trading partners. A White House official told CNBC that the US is now ‘entering the endgame’ of the war.
Iran war six months in: what analysts are saying
Geopolitical analysts are broadly sceptical that economic pressure alone will force Iran to back down. Gregory Brew, a senior analyst specialising in Iran and energy at Eurasia Group, described the conflict as having ‘lapsed into a standoff, with neither side apparently ready to escalate or make concessions.’ He said the US appeared to have pulled back from further strikes, deterred by the risk of significant Iranian retaliation and worries about depleting munitions stockpiles.
‘Instead, Trump has opted for a pressure campaign, a “wait and see” approach, hoping that economic pressure compels the Iranians to capitulate,’ Brew told CNBC. He added, however, that a breakthrough ‘doesn’t look imminent,’ and called Trump’s ‘Economic D-Day’ strategy ‘unlikely to work,’ arguing Iran ‘has been very resilient in the face of US economic pressure’ and that its leadership was ‘more likely to resist and escalate than to give in to US demands.’
Will Todman, a senior fellow with the CSIS Middle East Program, agreed the White House had pivoted to economic warfare as its preferred tool, but said ‘there is little evidence to suggest that an economic-centric strategy will force the Iranians to capitulate or make more substantial concessions in talks.’ He pointed to a deeper problem: the Trump administration, he said, has ‘still not defined what victory for the United States would look like,’ with stated goals ranging from ending Iran’s nuclear programme to reopening the Strait of Hormuz to regime change.
Steven A. Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, argued that Iranian leaders were ‘prepared to endure a lot of hardship and inflict a lot of pain’ on their own population. ‘The president thought the war would last four to six weeks,’ Cook told CNBC. ‘He never expected them to resist effectively. The Iranians have now discovered the power of their geography and seem unwilling to give up on controlling/administering the Strait of Hormuz.’
Dennis Ross, a former US diplomat who served as special Middle East coordinator under President Bill Clinton, acknowledged that Iran had ‘become good at workarounds and evasion of sanctions’ over the years. Even so, he said the combination of the blockade and potentially tighter sanctions enforcement ‘will put more pressure on an Iranian economy already in free fall.’ He warned, however, that if the economic squeeze tightens significantly, Tehran may escalate militarily or target its neighbours’ ability to export.
Michael O’Hanlon, director of research in the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy program, said Trump had ‘blundered in getting into a war with unrealistic expectations’ and had settled on ‘the least bad option.’ His prescription for measuring success was concrete: reducing the violence, reopening Hormuz, and putting ‘a long-term lid on Iran’s nuclear program.’ ‘If that happens,’ O’Hanlon said, ‘our core strategic objectives will be realized, whether we have bragging rights to have “won” the war or not.’
Trump told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that he was prepared to continue the Iran war for as long as necessary. With Operation Economic Outcast now in force and secondary sanctions still being weighed against China, the financial pressure on Tehran is set to intensify in the weeks ahead.
